Morning Coffee - Nov. 27, 2024
Need more 3s | Agbaji a pleasant surprise but needs to do better | Bet the Raptors against the spread
Scottie Barnes’ good leadership, Chris Boucher and more: Raptors starting 5 - The Athletic
More 3s needed, even if they’re risky
The Raptors came into the Detroit game taking 30.5 3-pointers per 100 possessions. That is last in the NBA. It is more than six attempts below the league median, and 20 below the league-leading Celtics, an admitted outlier.
Meanwhile, Raptors opponents are averaging 36.7 attempts 100 possessions. The Raptors came into the Pistons game allowing the third-lowest 3-point accuracy, which means their opponents are due for some positive regression. Perhaps the Raptors have been a little unlucky shooting the ball, connecting on 33.6 percent of their 3s. We know there isn’t much shooting talent on this team, though, especially without Quickley.
On average, the Raptors are allowing 12.8 made 3s per game and making 10.4. It seems like those numbers will only grow further apart. The Raptors need Quickley back, and they need some other guys to start shooting more, even if they might occasionally scan as bad shots. This math cannot hold. (To be clear, it is not currently holding. They are 4-14!)
Against the Pistons, the Raptors were getting blown out until Barnes made three semi-contested looks that he easily could have turned down, especially with the Raptors struggling from deep. (He even took a heat check from extra deep). A tad more of that, please.
The Raptors are defying the NBA’s three-point revolution — and the results speak for themselves - Toronto Star
It would be nice to believe the Raptors were onto something.
Darko Rajakovic’s team, after all, plays with some admirable qualities. They’re not afraid to run hard, leading the NBA in fast-break points. They’re not shy about going to the rim, ranking second in points in the paint. And when they miss shots, they’re relentless in following them up, ranking No. 1 in second-chance points.
That it’s all added up to a 4-14 win-loss record, tied for the third-worst mark in the league heading into Tuesday, tells you the Raptors are in the early midst of a highly dignified tank job. Should the lottery balls fall their way, there’ll be no shame in celebrating the impending arrival of a top prospect from a highly touted draft class.
Better hope the new kid can shoot the three. Because there’s something else that’s notable about the way Rajakovic’s team plays that makes it an outlier: The Raptors haven’t yet given themselves over to the idea that the three-point shot is basketball’s be-all and end-all.
NBA teams are averaging 37 three-point attempts a game this season, on pace for a new league record. To put that in historical perspective, teams are taking nearly three times as many three-pointers a game than they did in Michael Jordan’s final season with the Chicago Bulls, 1997-98. In the NBA’s “Last Dance” era, teams averaged a little less than 13 three-pointers a game.
Still, while the league is zigging, the Raptors are zagging. They came into Tuesday averaging an NBA-low 31.2 three-point attempts a game. Considering one of the silver-lining developments of Toronto’s season has been the improvement of second-year sharpshooter Gradey Dick, who is making a respectable 2.4 three-pointers a game, fourth-best among NBA sophomores, let’s just say the Raptors aren’t exactly stocked with a surplus of long-distance shooting talents — or shooting talent of any kind, really. As of Tuesday morning, the Raptors ranked 25th in true shooting percentage, an all-in measurement of all-situations accuracy.
Monday’s loss in Detroit was the latest illustration of the grim shortcomings. The Raptors used their knack for crashing the offensive glass and forcing turnovers to create 104 field-goal attempts, 28 more than the Pistons, and yet their less-than-stellar collective shooting eye ensured they still logged a loss at the buzzer.
Raptors @ Cavs, Pistons: Nov. 24, 25 Takeaways: Barnes heroics not enough to end road winless streak - Raptors in 7
The Cleveland Cavaliers are massive inside but not so much on the outside. Jarrett Allen has proven a matchup nightmare for Jakob Poeltl, so what’s the workaround?
When Boston gave Cleveland its only loss of the season, it was a barrage of 3-pointers that proved their undoing. The Celtics shot 22-of-41 from downtown and that plus-36 differential from beyond the arc ultimately proved pivotal in a 3-point win.
Toronto does not possess anywhere near that level of shooting but they tried that route anyway, going 5-for-21 from beyond the arc in the first half alone against Cleveland. The second half was an improvement at 7-for-18, finishing the game at 30.8% from three. The Raptors shot 10-for-35 against the Pistons (28.6%).
Herein lies a big problem for the Raptors right now. The team ranks dead-last in 3-point attempt frequency and 23rd in 3-point percentage. In a game like the one against the Cavs, it made Immanuel Quickley’s absence all the more glaring, and that 3-point inadequacy was doubled by Gradey Dick’s absence against Detroit.
Quickley’s averages are skewed this season because he left the first game with injury after playing just 14 minutes and then played 26 and 27 minutes in his return because of a minutes restriction. On a per-36 minute basis he would be attempting 8.5 threes per game, a tick above last season’s 7.7 mark as a Raptor.
Throw in Kelly Olynyk’s two or three attempts per game and Toronto desperately needs those 10-plus attempts back from its better shooters. Both Quickley and Olynyk will help the rest of their teammates take better quality threes as well.
RAPTORS MAILBAG: Who is out if Cooper Flagg or other top prospect lands in Toronto - Toronto Sun
Darko’s done a great job of keeping things positive both last year and early this season even with the losses piling up. Last year it was blowout after blowout, lately it’s been close defeats that could demoralize some groups, but he hasn’t let that happen. Players are getting better under the watch of Rajakovic and his staff, which was the main reason why he was hired in the first place. I think he’s had some struggles late in games with lineups, timeouts and things like that and the defence has been way too porous and foul-prone (but still better than last year), but overall has done a good job. He certainly knows the game, has great rapport with his players and works hard.
NBA Power Rankings: Spurs rise, Celtics are No. 1 and giving thanks for each team - The Athletic
This week: 26
Last week: 28
In the last week: W vs. MIN, L at CLE, L at DET
Offensive rating: 111.1 (19th)
Defensive rating: 116.4 (24th)
Thankful: Scottie Barnes is back
Barnes missed 24 days with a fractured orbital bone, but he is back to continue building on what was a decent start to the season. The Raptors lost a heartbreaker Monday in Detroit, which is par the course for their entire campaign so far, but Barnes hit season highs with 31 points, 14 rebounds and three 3s.
NBA Power Rankings: Biggest lessons learned so far from all 30 teams - ESPN
This week: 28
Last week: 29
Next games: @ NO (Nov. 27), @ MIA (Nov. 29), vs. MIA (Dec. 1), vs. IND (Dec. 3)
The youth movement is fully underway. The Raptors currently have five players averaging more than 30 minutes per game, with only one of them -- Jakob Poeltl -- north of 25 years old. The roster has fully been flipped from the 2019 title-winning squad and has instead been turned over to Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, Gradey Dick and RJ Barrett. As a result, Toronto is not competing for a playoff spot, but for ping-pong balls in the lottery -- and the chance to add another young difference-maker. -- Bontemps
Every NBA Team's Biggest Surprise So Far - Bleacher Report
Toronto Raptors: Ochai Agbaji Finding His Form
The NBA doesn't always practice ton of patience with underperforming prospects, especially when those prospects aren't teenagers with limited high-stakes hoops under their belts.
So, when Ochai Agbaji—who played in a bunch of big games over his four seasons at Kansas—struggled mightily as a third-year player in summer league, it was fair to wonder whether his days in the Association might already be numbered.
So much for that. Something clicked for the 6'5" swingman between then and now, and he is suddenly connecting on everything he throws at the basket. At least, a 52.6/44.1/70 shooting slash surely feels that way after his previous struggles.
If the 24-year-old sustains even a decent chunk of this success, he'll garner building-block consideration.
Dial 905: Long Island Nets Series - Raptors 905 showing signs of life - Raptors HQ
The Toronto Raptors assigned Jamal Shead, Ja’Kobe Walter, Jamison Battle, and Jonathan Mogbo before the first game of this series. Still, Mogbo did not see time on the floor. For Shead, Walter, and Battle, it’s a rough welcome for them on what it’s like at the G League level. It didn’t help that they faced one of the top teams in pace in Long Island Nets, who shifted several gears in the second half of their first game of the series, while the 905ers got stuck in second gear.
Walter remained with the Raptors 905 for the second game of the series, and the Nets didn’t play Toronto’s own AJ Lawson, who exploded for 37 points against a stacked Raptors 905 team in their last game. However, Tyreke Key stole the show, dropping six trifectas en route to 24 points and nine dimes off the bench, helping the Raptors 905 get a split against the Nets with a win, 130-115.
Despite coming off the bench in one of the games, Kennedy Chandler led the team in scoring with 19.5 points. He also had 8.5 assists to 2.5 giveaways in this series, keeping his turnovers under control. Chandler’s shooting came alive in this series, shooting 55.6% from behind the arc on 4.5 attempts.
Ja’Kobe Walter scored 16.5 points on 13.5 attempts. Still, his perimeter shot hasn’t gone down as expected, shooting a subpar 33.3% on six attempts from behind the arc. However, he’s shown some nifty on-ball and off-ball moves as he found ways to contribute to the cause. Ulrich Chomche looked more and more comfortable as he piled on the minutes under his belt. While he only averaged eight points, he did that on 70% shooting from the field. He also grabbed 7.5 rebounds in this series. Still, more importantly, he’s fouling less, which keeps him on the floor longer, as the team needs his presence in the middle, being a +14.5 on box +/- for this series.
The Raptors 905’s offense is starting to round into form. The team started playing like early NBA D League basketball, where the offense was dominated by the guards with very minimal ball movement and defense. Still, the past few games, especially this series against the Nets, saw the Raptors 905’s offense trending up. Adding the assignees, who have more expertise in coach Darko Rajakovic’s offence, probably helped expedite the team’s understanding of how the offence should look. As of this writing (November 26th), the Raptors 905 jumped from 11th place in assists pre-Nets series to 1st overall with 28.4 assists per game.
Toronto Raptors poised to finally post first road win of season against frail New Orleans Pelicans - Toronto Sun
Maybe when Immanuel Quickley is back, the potential for draw-and-kick actions will become a staple of the Raptors offence that will, in theory, allow Barnes to spot up on the perimeter.
Without Quickley, Barnes is the de facto point guard. RJ Barrett can serve as a facilitator, but he’s limited in going to his dominant left hand.
When Detroit visited Toronto recently, Barrett’s baseline feed to an open Dick underscored the Canadian’s court vision.
Dick hurt his calf in Monday’s loss to the Cavs when Toronto’s four-game trip tipped off.
It would surprise many if Dick is available Wednesday night when the New Orleans Pelicans play host to the Raptors, who will wrap up their road slate Friday night in Miami before the Heat visits Toronto on Sunday for a 6 p.m. tip.
The way Barnes played in Detroit, the way the Raptors continue to pound the offensive glass led by Jakob Poeltl, it’s easy to see what this team could look like once all the pieces are fully engaged.
By any measurement, Toronto’s 4-10 record is misleading. In a way, it debunks the famous Bill Parcells line: “You are what your record says you are.”
While it’s painfully true and abundantly obvious, the Raptors only have won four of their first 14 games, all at home where they’ve gone 4-4. It’s also true they’ve given themselves opportunity to win perhaps as many as three additional games.
The two losses to the Pistons immediately come to mind, the near misses in Denver and to the host L.A. Clippers fall under that what-if category.
Against the Pels, the Raptors are presented with a winnable opportunity, a chance to finally get that road gorilla off their back.
