Morning Coffee - Nov. 14, 2024
I need the Vince Carter stuff to be done with | Ochai on the rise | Never too early to start talking wild trades
Five Things I Dig and Don’t Dig About the Toronto Raptors - Raptors Republic
A lot of very, very good things are happening right now in the Toronto Raptors development system.
Which is the “most outstanding” is arguable. Ochai Agbaji’s sudden rise makes a strong case. He’s gone from discard pile of a rebuilding team (Utah Jazz) to impactful starter in a matter of one offseason.
Defence was never a problem for Agbaji. He’s decently agile, long, strong, pesky, determined and active offball. He’s no O.G. Anunoby, but he’s a simulacrum. That’s good enough.
Offensive impotence was the real vulnerability to Agbaji’s NBA fate. His inability to self-create (148 of his 178 total baskets were assisted last year) and inconsistent 3-ball, even from the corners (23% on 66 attempts last year), meant defenders heeded him little attention. Agbaji fed mostly off of cuts, fastbreaks, kickouts, and weakside attacks.
It was not enough. Nor did any of it, in two years, demonstrate much promise from an “older” NBA prospect. It – foolishly to all of us – left little hope for Agbaji’s future.
But that’s the beauty of perseverance and development. No story is foretold.
This year, in a small sample size, Ochai has proven himself a formidable threat. Leaving him open from 3 is a coin flip for punishment (48% on 4 shots/game!). Closeout too aggressively and, suddenly, Abagi is more than willing, and capable, of attacking, shooting 64% on three drives a game (way up from 42% on two drives last year) with career bests in at-rim frequency and accuracy.
The attributes of his drives tell the real story. There’s certainty in his attacks, ball and body control as he penetrates, and touch and finesses in tight spaces and angles when finishing. These don’t feel so much as strokes of luck, as they do a sudden progression in that je ne sais quoi basketball “feel”.
Watchi Agbaji take this handoff from Jakob Pöltl, for example.
Those less comfortable off the bounce would balk at the sudden space. Agbaji does not hesitate, he accelerates, venturing towards The Rudy Gobert. An extra dribble gets him in trouble. Gobert’s trap is timed. Agbaji affords him no anticipation, circumventing whatever trigger Gobert awaited, and elevating through with a lefthand scooper. That’s not rote work, that’s thoughtful evaluation and execution in a fraction of a moment.
Agbaji was feeling it because three minutes later it’s more or less the same play on the other side of the court.
For both drives, the threat of the 3-point shot is vital. Anthony Edwards, valiantly, fights past screens in both plays, knowing with Gobert in drop and Reid in retreat, the 3 is available. Agbaji knows he knows that and attacks. The permutational fun of hoops unfolds.
There’s continued growth peppered in too. A floater over a looming Ivica Zubac. A transition break crossover past De’Aaron Fox into the chest of awaiting seven-footer, Alex Len. An offhand squeaker through contact.
There’s yet much to build upon. Agbaji still, effectively, lacks self-creation; his “dependency” upon others remains high (only 10 of his 60 made shots were unassisted). Nor does he possess much of a mid-range game (10 attempts out of 108 total). Work in progress. Very allowed. Especially, if this sudden boon of offensive output and efficiency is here to stay.
Yes, it’s early, but there’s a bright side to the Raptors being last in the NBA - Toronto Star
The chief consolation, then and now, is the same: favourable odds in the NBA draft lottery. Actually, when you look back to 2006, the odds weren’t even that favourable. Toronto, after a mid-season surge that saw them win 27 games under Sam Mitchell, had the fifth-best odds to win the No. 1 pick — a modest 8.8 per cent chance.
The good news is they won the lottery. The bad news is they won it in a draft that lacked a consensus franchise player. Toronto’s best stab at finding a star, Andrea Bargnani, never turned into that dude.
The lottery landscape has changed considerably since then. For one thing, the 2025 draft projects to be brimming with potential franchise cornerstones, chief among them 17-year-old Duke freshman Cooper Flagg. Still, thanks to flattened lottery odds meant to disincentivize tanking, the league’s bottom three finishers get identical odds at the No. 1 overall pick — 14 per cent. The fourth-worst team gets a 12.5 per cent shot, the fifth-worst, 10.5 per cent. That means, if the season keeps going roughly like it is going, the Raptors could have anywhere from a 1-in-7 to a 1-in-9 chance at winning the No. 1 pick.
Not that it’ll be easy to maintain the status quo. Toronto isn’t the only team in active tank mode. And this season has come with its bright spots. Heading into Wednesday, Gradey Dick led all second-year players in scoring with 20.1 points a game, a number that ranks him ahead of the likes of Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren. Coupled with the emergence of Ochai Agbaji, who is shooting 48 per cent from three-point range, Dick’s vast improvement suggests the Raptors could string together some wins should Barnes and Quickley ever re-enter the chat.
The pileup of losses hasn’t yet sapped Dick’s spirit.
5 Stats That Explain The Start of This Raptors Season - Sports Illustrated
Defensive Rating: 118.4 (29th)
Toronto's offense hasn't been very good, but it's defense has been a disaster.
The Raptors have tried to ramp up their ball pressure, but still, defensive mistakes have made it far too easy for opposing teams to get to the hoop or create open three-point shots. The lack of a reliable backup center has left Toronto with serious defensive woes when Jakob Poeltl comes off the floor and the Raptors don't have the kind of wing defenders necessary to slow down the league's top playmakers. Ochai Agbaji has been better than expected, but Toronto doesn't have the size or strength to compete on a nightly basis.
Barnes' return will help, but until the Raptors make significant roster changes it's hard to envision Toronto having a competent defense anytime soon.
NBA Rookie Rankings: Grizzlies’ Zach Edey, Jaylen Wells lead underwhelming draft class - The Athletic
Toronto has a pair of players listed here, too, in Jamal Shead and Jonathan Mogbo. Shead is second among guards averaging nearly four assists per game and has been a solid energy player. He provides a lot of effort on defense and generally has been active. He feels like one of those players for whom the numbers don’t quite tell the story. The tape looks better than the stats. Mogbo has been somewhat similar, averaging five points, four rebounds and two assists while having moments of solid defense in a Canadian oasis where defense has been optional so far this season.
Rise of Gradey Dick coincides with RJ Barrett's regression for Toronto Raptors - Toronto Sun
The way Dick has played — his first-half performance against the Bucks was by far his finest stretch — he has moved into the conversation of joining the team’s Big 3 of Barnes, Quickley and Barrett.
For 24 minutes against an equally inept Bucks team, Dick played like an all-star — aggressive in attacking the basket, creative when the ball was in his hands.
In the second half, which would feature the Raptors trailing by as many as 21 points in an eventual 99-85 loss, Dick forced his game. Whether it was Milwaukee’s defence preventing him from finding his rhythm or how the game began to slip away, Dick’s level of frustration mounted.
Barrett’s first half arguably was his worst as a Raptor. And to think he was playing at a decent level when the team’s trip began in Denver.
Prior to Quickley’s latest injury, Barrett became the go-to guy who wanted the ball, demanded it and was willing to take the last shot on nights when the Raptors actually had a chance to post a win.
In 31 minutes against the Bucks, Barrett did not attempt a single free throw. In contrast, Dick lived at the line in the first half.
During Toronto’s winless trip, Barrett recorded 22 assists, but he also turned the ball over 21 times.
3 Trades The Raptors Should Consider After Their Bad Start To Tank This Season - Fadeaway World
Raptors receive: De'Andre Hunter, Vit Krejci, Aaron Wiggins, Ousmane Dieng, Jonathan Isaac, 2025 first-round pick (via DEN), 2025 first-round pick (via PHI), 2025 first-round pick (via SAC)
Raptors trade: Bruce Brown, Jakob Poeltl, Chris Boucher, Kelly Olynyk
In this scenario, the Raptors are officially hitting the reset button, shaking up the roster to stockpile young players and draft picks that could shape their future. Here’s the breakdown of this ambitious rebuild move:
The Raptors ship out some familiar faces: Bruce Brown, Jakob Poeltl, Chris Boucher, and Kelly Olynyk. Each of them lands in a different spot with teams that could use their specific skills. Boucher and Olynyk head to the Magic, giving Orlando a couple of veteran bigs who can bring stability and versatility to a young squad trying to make a splash in the East. Poeltl makes his way to OKC, where his defense and rebounding will be perfect for the Thunder’s young, high-energy roster. Brown heads to the Hawks, bringing grit, defense, and playoff experience to a team looking to construct a better identity.
What do the Raptors get in return? A whole lot of potential. De'Andre Hunter is a solid wing with defensive chops, and Jonathan Isaac—while a bit of a gamble with his injury history—could be a game-changer if he stays healthy. Then there’s a trio of young players in Vit Krejci, Aaron Wiggins, and Ousmane Dieng, who all bring developmental upside, giving Toronto plenty of young talent to work with.
But the real prize here is the three 2025 first-round picks (from Denver, Philly, and Sacramento). These picks give the Raptors flexibility galore—whether they want to draft some new talent, use them in other deals, or just keep building their future foundation.
In this dream scenario, the Raptors set themselves up for a serious rebuild, stacking up youth and draft capital to lay the groundwork for the next era in Toronto. It’s a bold move, but if they’re committed to starting fresh, this is exactly the kind of haul they’d be after.