Morning Coffee - Nov. 12, 2024
Morning Coffee - Nov. 12, 2024
Barrett is legit | Poop for Coop | The defense needs a lot of work | Ramping up for the NBA Cup
So is Toronto’s RJ Barrett a star, or has he regressed to his Knicks’ days? - Raptors Republic
By and large, Barrett was getting deeper on his drives before passing, seeing more advanced reads, and manipulating the defence more and for longer periods of time. He was doing it all in an offence that creates more dynamism, with more reads available to him, and that is offering him more primacy. That bore out when you go back to the numbers, too. Barrett’s assist rate on drives in 2022-23 and 2023-24 was less than half of what was early in the year. And that’s a per-drive number; it’s not just opportunity.
Okay, that’s the good. So what has changed?
And over the last week, Barrett’s drives have sunk below 12 per game. He’s been much less aggressive, with more of his shots drifting to the midrange and fewer at the rim. He’s been seeing more defensive attention in the middle of the floor, and he’s even been stripped during his gather on occasion, which is uncommon for him.
Perhaps the reason comes from dwindling opportunity: his touches have plummeted to 72 per game over the last week, a drop of almost 15 per game when compared to Barrett’s start to the season. And as he’s been getting fewer touches, his time per touch and dribbles per touch have crept upwards — he’s seeing less of the ball and spending more time with it. That shouldn’t be the case, especially as he has been initiating less frequently in pick and roll. Some of his initiation reps have morphed into flip 4 touches (getting the ball above the break on the move, but without a screen or other dynamism). Broadly, the ball has been in other players’ hands to start possessions, and Barrett’s drives aren’t reaching as deep, are curling and stopping before the rim. When he has had the ball, he’s been dribbling more and attacking less. In Quickley’s first game back, Barrett finished with his lowest points total and tied-lowest assist total of the young season. (The next game, Barrett managed only a few points and one assist more.)
It’s not like Barrett doesn’t know how to coexist with Quickley. Barrett spent plenty of time last year alongside the stars, and plenty of time without them. There really wasn’t much of a difference in his performance when he was the second or third fiddle with Barnes and Quickley on the floor, or when he was carrying the hospital Raptors in March. He knows how to attack quickly when alongside initiators, and showed early this year he knows how to carry an offence as the lone initiator. Recently, he just … hasn’t been doing either.
Raptors coach Darko Rajaković doesn’t believe in moral victories, plus rookie bright spots: Q&A - The Athletic
Q - What does the start of this year feel like for you compared to last year? It’s your second year versus your first, and the expectations have obviously changed.
A - That’s really good perspective. Really good question, because last year we had some new faces to the organization. In the summer losing Fred VanVleet, adding Dennis Schröder, having some of the guys that were here for a longer time. New coach, getting players used to that system. It was really trying to find a balance of how to move the needle offensively with the ball movement, playing together, while at the same time competing and trying to win. We entered the season with the mission to really compete for the playoffs. And then when everything started changing, when we decided to go into the rebuild, the mentality changed.
This year the focus is very clear. We need to develop young guys. We need to develop our roster. The main thing, the most important thing, is being dedicated to the process of the development — individually and as a team. And this year for us, process has to be more important than the outcome of some of those games. That’s not saying that you’re not competing. That’s not saying that we don’t want to win. I think it’s completely opposite. As you can see, we are undermanned, but we are really competing and staying in all of those games against really good teams.
Early Raptors trends: Barrett, Dick shining for undermanned squad - Sportsnet
Look away Knicks fans, the "Maple mamba" is home and living up to the billing of a third-overall pick the likes of which New York hoped for when drafting him out of Duke in 2019.
Barrett's biggest knock in the concrete jungle was a lack of consistency, showing glimmers of brilliance that kept fizzling out. And when his early Raptors tenure included averaging a career-high 21.8 points per game while knocking down a hyper-efficient 39 per cent of his threes, it sparked the same question: was it yet another flash in the pan or was this the player fans should expect moving forward?
Through eight games this year — Barrett missed the first three with a shoulder injury — the sixth-year guard has dispelled most concerns. Playing in coach Darko Rajakovic's movement-heavy offence has not only elevated his scoring ability — averaging a team-best 23.1 points per game as one of the most impactful drivers in the NBA — it's unveiled a previously unseen playmaking prowess.
With Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley dealing with injuries, the Raptors have opted to operate through Barrett, and while the Canadian is in uncharted territory, he's thriving. He is averaging a career-high 6.1 assists a game (25th in the NBA), with a 96th percentile usage rate and 94th percentile assist percentage amongst those at his position. Before this season, Barrett had not amassed nine assists at any point in the NBA. He's now done it twice through eight games.
It's not just that he's moving the ball. Fans saw plenty of his drive-and-kick game last year. Barrett has operated in new spaces this year and actually read defences, and so far, it's led to positive outcomes. He's generating 7.3 points per game as a pick-and-roll ball-handler (15th in the NBA), nearly five points better than last year.
When "Star-J" isn't bowling his way to the rim, he's been evaluating the opposition and finding his bigs in the short roll or making skip passes to opposite corners. And while it's unclear how much of his increased scoring or playmaking load continues once his "BBQ" running mates are back in the mix consistently, the Raptors developing another competent initiator through injuries is a major plus.
It's a big reason why Barrett is currently second in Most Improved Player of the Year odds (+700 via BetMGM).
The Toronto Raptors are putting the “fun” in “tank for Cooper Flagg” - Raptors HQ
So, now here we find ourselves, in a rebuild. We are 11 games into the NBA season and this already feels like a tanking year. Which is fine, considering the draft class for 2025 looks promising and the Raptors have the rights to their lottery pick. Cooper Flagg, get ready to be the next face of Subway Canada.
Maybe it’s because they are playing in Toronto now, maybe it’s because everything is purple, maybe it’s because we aren’t pre-emptively mourning Kyle Lowry leaving... but this season’s tank feels... fun?
It really doesn’t feel like this team is 2-9. Most of these games have been exciting, close, battles — even against teams like Denver, the Clippers, and Philly. Most games have come down to a handful of points, and even in the losses, the skills our young players have exhibited is exciting regardless of result.
We also know this isn’t the ceiling for the team. While in 2021, we knew the Raptors were heading face-first into a rebuild, it almost feels like we can see the light at the end now. Scottie Barnes, Quickley, and Barrett are locked in. Gradey Dick is only in his second season, and the rookies are showing great promise.
Add in the fact that the team has been incredibly injured to start the season, unfortunately. We haven’t even been able to see Barnes, Barrett, and Quickley play a single minute together as a trio.
Yet, the team atmosphere also feels wildly different now than it did in 2021. That team KNEW what it felt like to win and it felt like someone had come to ruin their party. The current team is a bunch of kids chasing that dream. They have the naiveté of youth and possibility looms ahead for them. Everything feels possible when you’re like 22, and not that I would know, but I’m sure being super rich also boosts that feeling. I would not know that feeling.
What we’ve learned from the Toronto Raptors on the West Coast road trip: The good, bad and ugly - Toronto Star
No case for the defence
No matter the lip service to concentrate on defence, the Raptors don’t play enough of it and haven’t all season.
They are dead last in defensive rating (120 points surrendered per 100 possessions) and their ranking of 122 over the first four games of the current trip is just not good enough, even for a young team figuring it out.
“We were scrambling to guard very basic actions,” centre Jakob Poeltl told reporters after Sunday night’s 123-103 loss to the Lakers. “For sure they have good offensive players that make plays and punish mistakes, but we have to hold ourselves to a higher standard … we shouldn’t be making mistakes like these.”
Some help coming
The return of point guard Immanuel Quickley should restore some semblance of order. He was very good in his first game after missing eight with a pelvic bruise and, understandably, faded — along with everyone on the court — in the second half of the Lakers loss.
He had eight assists and two turnovers over the two losses in Los Angeles. For a Raptors team that throws the ball away with alarming regularity (16.3 turnovers per game), better decision-making and sure-handedness is a must.
Toronto Raptors need to buck their losing trend as they head to Milwaukee to play the Bucks - Toronto Sun
Pre-game, head coach Darko Rajakovic offered a mea culpa when he acknowledged how the ball should not have been in Jakob Poeltl’s hands on an inbounds play late Saturday night.
Time and score, game management and late-game shot creation have all been exposed, as has Toronto’s porous defence and its inability to protect the basketball.
Going 0-5 on a trip is a possibility, even against a Bucks team that has not looked good.
In the big picture, the more losses the Raptors are able to pile up, the better their chances at the draft lottery.
That zoomed-out assessment sounds encouraging knowing the best way to acquire talent is by securing a high draft pick when a team’s 30-year history has shown no bona fide free agent in his prime years is inclined to sign with Toronto.
Power Rankings, Week 4: Cavs keep sizzling, take over at No. 1 - NBA.com
This Week: 26
Last Week:24↓
Record: 2-9
OffRtg: 112.7 (15) DefRtg: 120.0 (30) NetRtg: -7.3 (25) Pace: 100.4 (10)
The Raptors have dropped into last place in the Eastern Conference, having lost the first four games of their five-game trip.
Three takeaways
The Raptors have twice had double-digit leads with less than seven minutes left against the Nuggets, and they lost both games. RJ Barrett had a chance for redemption (after air-balling a 3-pointer one possession earlier) at the buzzer on Monday, but his step-back 3 for the win spun in and out. The Raptors are 3-for-14 (21%) on clutch 3s for the season, with Barrett 1-for-7.
With Scottie Barnes having missed the last seven games and Immanuel Quickley missing eight before returning over the weekend, Barrett is registering a career-high usage rate of 29.9%. This is the first time since his rookie year that he’s been assisted on less than half of his buckets, and his true shooting percentage (52.2%) is way down from his 32 games with the Raptors last season (61.5%).
The Raptors rank last in opponent free throw rate by a wide margin, with their opponents having attempted 38 free throws per 100 shots from the field. Over their six November games, they’ve attempted 83 fewer free throws than their opponents. And for the season, the difference at the line has been greater than or equal to the overall point differential in six of their nine losses.
Winless on their current trip and 0-6 away from Scotiabank Arena overall, the Raptors are the only team without a road win. They’ll try again when they open NBA Cup play in Milwaukee on Tuesday. Dating back to Game 5 of the 2019 conference finals, they’ve won seven of their last 10 games at Fiserv Forum.
Ranking the 30 NBA Cup 2024 court designs, from bottom (Pelicans) to top - The Athletic
14. Toronto Raptors (48)
Robbins (23): Purple should not be the dominant color on a court surface, but this design makes sense (other than the zigzags, that is). It’s a nice callback to the Raptors’ early years. And if the “We the North” slogan doesn’t hit home, then the longitude signaling in the court’s lower-right corner should provide the gist.
Jones (21): I know this isn’t the intent … but the zigzags going across the court and its being purple remind me of a tribute to Prince.
King (4): Too much purple. Too many weird lightning bolts. The “We the North” motto is growing old, too. Do better, Toronto. You could have incorporated all types of cool dinosaur stuff, yet you chose this instead.
NBA Cup Primer: Everything you need to know ahead of the second tournament - Sportsnet
How do teams advance to the knockout stage?
The winning team from each group earns an automatic berth into the knockout stage, with the final two spots given to wild-card teams. Wild cards are handed to the team in each conference that finished with the best record outside of group winners.
In the event that two teams are knotted for the top spot, the tie will be broken according to the following tiebreakers (in order):
• Head-to-head record in group play
• Point differential in group play *
• Total points scored in group play *
• Record from 2023-24 regular season
• Random drawing
* Overtime scoring does not count toward point totals or point differential
Additionally, should two potential wild-card teams finish with the same record, the same tie-breaking format will be applied, other than head-to-head record.
In the knockout stage, teams will be seeded based on group-stage records. The two teams in each conference with the best records will host the quarterfinal games.
Do the games count toward regular season standings?
All group-stage and knockout-stage quarterfinal and semifinal games count toward the regular-season standings. However, the NBA Cup Final does not count toward the standings.
What prize will teams be playing for?
Other than the glory of an NBA Cup victory, every player on the winning team will receive $500,000 U.S.