Morning Coffee - Nov. 1, 2024
The 3s don't add up. Scottie's loss is bad for an already bad team. Hey ya!
Math remains Raptors’ greatest foe - Raptors Republic
If you’re Toronto, something’s gotta give.
The Celtics are able to launch so many triples because a) everyone in the rotation can shoot and b) they threaten defences with a boatload of pull-up 3-pointers out of pick and rolls.
As previously established, shooting is not a precondition to joining Toronto’s rotation. And right now, the Raptors are second-last in the league in pull-up 3-pointers attempted, at a mere 6.4 per contest. Eleven players (!) are taking more pull-up bombs per game than the Raptors as a team. And Toronto is connecting on only 25.0 percent of such shots, which isn’t enough to open anything on the offensive end. Outside of Quickley and Dick, there’s really no one capable of taking and making such shots at a high frequency. And Quickley is out, and Dick is too busy doing other stuff. So them’s the breaks, more or less.
It means Toronto needs to work much harder than other teams to create shots. It means there are areas of the court, types of shots, that are relatively inaccessible to Toronto’s offence that other teams can pry open at will. And it means that the Raptors are starting games at a huge numerical disadvantage. Forget starting games down five points. If the Raptors are going to let other teams take 20 more triples than them, they’re really starting games down 10 points or more.
Part of this issue is going to solve itself. As Quickley and Barnes return, Dick will be able to take far more, and more open, triples. Quickley will launch 10 (or so) triples per game of his own. If all goes right with Walter, he’ll join the rotation and slot in as a cutter, mover, shot creator, and most of all: a shooter. Perhaps Toronto will crack 40 triples per game. (Only three teams are doing so this year. The Raptors aren’t even cracking 30 per game.) But that’s way off in the future. And a lot of other things have to go right, in terms of personnel development, for the Raptors to get there.
Maybe it’s not such a bad thing for the Raptors this season if they don’t manage to even the 3-point disparity in 2024-25. But if the team is going to dig out of this hole at any point in the future, math will be a problem that needs solving.
NBA early-season surprises: Victor Wembanyama’s start, Klay Thompson’s fit and more - The Athletic
Jonathan Mogbo’s production: Thanks to a spate of injuries, the Raptors have gone deep down their roster to fill out the nightly rotation. A pair of second-round rookies, Mogbo and Jamal Shead, have played real minutes. Both have been good, but the way Mogbo has been able to impact the game as a non-center without a jumper has been a nice surprise. Mogbo has been excellent in transition, both as a passer and finisher, and is tied for sixth in the league in deflections entering Thursday night despite playing just 83 minutes through five games. — Eric Koreen
Losing Scottie Barnes is a crushing loss for the Raptors. Here’s how they can make the most of it - The Star
The decision to start Jonathan Mogbo when Barnes is out makes most sense.
Again, it’s out of necessity but there’s precedent for a Toronto team in nearly similar circumstances.
Mogbo is not likely to turn into a Pascal Siakam in the longer term, but force-feeding him starting minutes like they did Siakam as a rookie will give Mogbo a heavy dose of reality. Siakam was ultimately replaced in the starting lineup because of a trade; Mogbo will lose the job when Barnes is healthy.
But what he’ll learn in the next month or so should play big dividends in the longer term.
Eventually Immanuel Quickley is going to play again. A weekend return might be reality, and what they do then will be interesting.
Quickley will start and should log heavy minutes, but what’s behind him? Davion Mitchell’s been good, Jamal Shead has been a revelation in five games. The question is, can they find minutes for all three or who loses out?
If this is truly about the longer term, it’s hard to cut back the role of Shead, who seems to have a bigger future spot coming. It’d be hard to lose Mitchell’s defence for extended periods but it might be the one thing that needs to be sacrificed.
What Scottie Barnes' injury means for Toronto Raptors all-star and the team - Toronto Sun
Few saw this as a playoff team coming in and only optimists thought the play-in was likely. Now, forget either of those options (it’s not like Toronto was thriving with Barnes, as its NBA-worst defensive efficiency rating indicates).
Management would prefer to land a high pick in what is seen as a stacked NBA draft, anyway, and the Barnes injury just made that scenario a lot more realistic.
Quickley has played parts of one game, Barrett two, top bench options Kelly Olynyk and Bruce Brown zero. Injuries have hit early as opposed to late last season, but the Barnes news is a gut punch.
The three teams with the NBA’s worst record at the end of the season each have 52.1% odds of selecting in the Top 4 and 14% at No. 1 (Duke’s Cooper Flagg is the front-runner, but most pundits think anybody in the Top 5 would have gone first in the weaker 2024 draft and can be all-stars).
Toronto Raptors fans idolized Damon Stoudamire after early jeers, just as our Star columnist predicted - Toronto Star
By big league standards, Damon Stoudamire is a miniature basketball player, a shrimp among giants, but he is just what the Raptors need — to a far greater extent than even they could have understood when they drafted him No. 1.
He’s the kind of energetic, courageous little athlete Torontonians have always doted on.
They love to watch people beat the odds through dedication and defiance.
They’ll idolize Stoudamire.
Think of Dave Keon or Doug Gilmour cutting enemy centres down to size. Think of Pinball Clemons darting through opposition defences. Think of Kurt Browning shrugging off defeat, Elvis Stojko surmounting injury. Think of teenager Marilyn Bell, swimming the lake when no man could.
Uncanny!