Morning Coffee - Mar. 25, 2025
Can't out-tank the Wizards | 10 games to go
Quick Reaction: Raptors 112, Wizards 104 - Raptors Republic
J. Poeltl - A+
26 MIN, 21 PTS, 11 REB, 1 AST, 2 STL, 10-13 FG, 1-2 FT, 3 BLK, 2 TO, 9 +/-
Involved in the offence early on and the most reliable bucket-getter in the first for Toronto. Flashed his defensive ability to start the second half as he came away with two steals right away. A very consistent performance from start to finish and this game reminded me of the stretch that he had early on in the season where he was sleepwalking his way into double-doubles.
What's at stake for Raptors as games get tougher to lose - Sportsnet
And while the quality of the Raptors opponents hasn’t been the only reason they’ve played .500 basketball since Jan. 13, it’s been a factor. With the win Monday the Raptors are 8-2 against teams projected to finish outside of the play-in tournament.
The catch to all of this, of course, is that the schedule keeps getting easier from here. Including the Wizards, the aggregate winning percentage of the Raptors remaining 11 opponents was .369, which is a 30-win pace.
The Raptors have:
Two more against Charlotte (.254); two more against Brooklyn (.319) and one more left with Philadelphia (.319), San Antonio (.443), Portland (.444), Chicago (.437), Dallas (.486), with their toughest test being Detroit (.556).
The good news, from the point of view of the lottery odds, is that Toronto has a healthy cushion between where they stand in seventh and falling back to eighth or ninth. Before the ball went up Monday the Raptors were six games behind Miami (10th) and seven behind Chicago (ninth). Even if they ran the table, the Raptors would be in little danger of moving past seventh in the lottery odds.
It’s in the other direction where things get interesting, as the Raptors are a game-and-a-half up on Brooklyn (sixth) and two games up on Philadelphia (fifth), each of whom lost Monday.
It will be interesting to see who the Raptors have available against the Nets Wednesday, which is a ‘must-lose’ game by draft lottery standings. So far the teams have split their first two meetings. If the Raptors are going to move ‘past’ the Nets they could well need a tiebreaker. Losing the season series would be the first one used. The Raptors have a 3-0 lead in their season series with Philadelphia, so they would have to finish with an outright worse record to past the Sixers, which is seeming more and more unlikely.
With Poeltl and Quickley playing against Washington it wouldn’t be all that surprising if the Raptors rest their staring centre and point guard on Wednesday on Brooklyn.
What is at stake?
If the Raptors finish with the fifth-best lottery odds they would have a:
9.8 per cent chance at picking first
39.8 per cent chance at picking in the top four
60.1 per cent chance of picking 5-9 and can’t pick lower than ninth.
If the Raptors finish with the sixth-best lottery odds they would have a:
9.7 per cent chance of picking first
39.6 per cent chance of picking 1-4
60.3 per cent chance at picking 6-10, but would not be able to move up to fifth
If they finish with the seventh-best odds the Raptors the pick profile given them a:
7.5 per cent chance at picking first
31.9 per cent chance at picking 1-4
68 per cent chance of picking 7-11 and would not be able to move up to pick fifth or sixth.
So the real risk for the Raptors between now and April 13th isn’t so much how high they might pick, but how likely there are to slide.
The Raptors’ Scottie Barnes will have plenty of three time this summer - Toronto Star
To be sure, Barnes is most effective nearer the basket, dominating physically on the post and operating as a mid-range shooter and facilitator with the ball.
But making him a passable three-point threat would make opponents more cognizant of him, forcing them to guard him more closely and, theoretically, create driving lanes for him.
It’s the kind of all-around offensive game they need.
“I do think that the way I see him developing is being a three-level scorer. I don’t see him necessarily just shooting layups and threes or just necessarily mid-range,” Rajakovic said. “I see him being efficient and improving in all those three areas.”
Barnes, who had 13 points and played about 27 minutes as the Raptors beat the Wizards 112-104 in Washington on Monday, is finishing up a season that has been good but not great.
His night Monday included misses on all five three-pointers he tried and he was 5-for-16 from the floor before departing with about eight-and-a-half minutes left.
Jakob Poeltl, rested for Sunday’s home loss, led Toronto with 21 points, 11 rebounds, three blocked shots and two steals as the Raptors snapped a four-game losing streak.
Before facing the Wizards, Barnes had been putting up career lows in overall shooting (44.9 per cent), three-point shooting and minutes (33.7 per game). His rebounding and assists are down slightly from his 2023-24 all-star season and his turnovers are up minimally.
Barnes keeps setting franchise milestones, though. He went past 2,000 career rebounds in a lopsided loss to San Antonio on Sunday and is the quickest in Raptors history to go over 2,000 rebounds and 1,000 assists.
It’s a nice little statistical accomplishment and he has been a terrific defender most of the season but, compared to the team’s record, none of it means much.
“It’s a great thing but … I’m just trying to go out there and win basketball games to the best of my abilities,” Barnes said Sunday. “I’m a player that likes to do everything, very unselfish out there, just trying to do everything it takes.”
Barnes has been good, with flashes of dominance, but the Raptors are headed to their second straight season of at least 50 losses and there are things to work on over the summer.
Rookie Shead a pleasant surprise for rebuilding Raptors - TSN
What’s unique about his season is that, unlike the other rookies on the roster, it hasn’t been broken up by a long (or multiple long) G League stints. Outside of a brief assignment in December, Shead has been up with the NBA club and a mainstay in the rotation. He’s played in a team-leading 65 games; nobody else has appeared in more than 57. That’s par for the course – in four college seasons, Shead didn’t miss a single game due to injury. His minutes have gone up each month and so have his point production and assists. If he’s hit the dreaded rookie wall at any point, it hasn’t shown or lasted very long.
While he wasn’t among the 14 first-year players selected to the Rising Stars Game last month, Shead has a legitimate case to earn All-Rookie honours. In 16 games since the all-star break, he’s averaging 8.1 points and 4.7 assists in 23 minutes. For the season, his 7.5 assists per 36 minutes ranks 15th among qualified players across the league. He’s third among rookies in assists and ranks fourth among bench players in that category, trailing only TJ McConnell, Scoot Henderson and Payton Pritchard.
His biggest area of improvement, according to the player himself, is the jump shot. Shead is hitting 34 per cent of his three-point attempts, up from 30 per cent in college. He knows there’s still work to be done – league average is around 36 per cent and that’s the goal, at minimum – but he’s come a long way in a short period of time and is shooting the ball with more confidence than ever before. He’s hit 38 per cent of his pull-up threes this month, up from 19 per cent earlier in the season.
But he still prides himself on being a defender, first and foremost. According to NBA tracking data, via stats guru Keerthika Uthayakumar, 22 per cent of the isolation possessions he’s guarded have ended in a turnover. That ranks seventh in the league, among qualified players. He’s second among rookies in offensive fouls drawn and leads all first-year players in taking charges.
“I’d say the thing that kept me up here is my defence,” said Shead. “Your defence doesn’t take skill, it’s more about effort. Maybe I have hit a rookie wall on offence, but defence is just effort. So, I think that being consistent with the defensive part has kept me up here.”
In the last two games alone, Shead has gone head-to-head with a couple future hall of famers at his position. Last week, he chased around Steph Curry and did an admirable job face guarding the two-time MVP and denying him the ball before he left with a back injury in the second half. On Sunday, he held Chris Paul to two points on 1-of-4 shooting in 22 minutes, while going off for a career-high 17 points on 7-of-14 shooting himself. He was only a minus-5 in a game that his team lost by 34 points.
“He continues to impress us every single day with his play,” Barnes said. “He’s young, but he plays like a vet.”
“Biggest thing for him over here in this stretch is getting opportunities to start some games, to play against the starters in this league, and that's a completely different game than going against backups,” said Rajakovic. “Over the course of season, he did really good job as a backup point guard, but now getting out there and playing against greats like Chris Paul. There's so much to learn. How he's controlling the team, how he's communicating, for him to be on the court to experience all of that is really, really going to help him to get to a next level. Overall, I think he's doing good job and I think he has more to give as well.”
This season has been a trial by fire for Shead and the other rookies, but despite the expected growing pains that have come with it, they should be better for the experience in the long run, and so will the organization. Out-of-nowhere success stories like Shead’s used to be the norm in Toronto. Finding and developing hidden gems late in the draft, or even outside of the draft, helped them build a championship team from the bottom up.
Raptors Starters Show Their Value in Reluctant Victory Over Wizards - Sports Illustrated
Jakob Poeltl had done his job.
That job has become a strange one in Toronto. The Raptors want their best players to perform, but not quite enough to win. Development is the priority at this stage of the season, but the organization also has an eye on improving its lottery odds. Poeltl understands the balance.
He was rested Sunday against the Spurs and will likely sit again Wednesday against the Nets. But on Monday night, he suited up and did what he does best: help the Raptors win basketball games.
A couple of floaters, strong screens to free up Immanuel Quickley, and Poeltl’s usual interior presence helped Toronto build an eight-point lead in the third quarter. Then came a Wizards timeout and a full Raptors lineup change.
Out went Poeltl, Quickley, and Scottie Barnes. In came a bench unit, tasked unofficially with keeping things close but not pulling away.
For a moment, it worked. A 10-0 Washington run out of the timeout put the the Wizards back in front. But it didn’t last.
The starters returned in the fourth, regained the lead, and a pair of three-pointers from Jamison Battle gave Toronto just enough separation. The Raptors never looked back, clinching a 112-104 victory that moved Toronto two wins ahead of the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers for the fifth-worst record in the NBA.
If losing is the goal, Poeltl is the problem.
The Austrian center has been Toronto’s most irreplaceable player over the past two seasons, and he showed it again on Monday. His floater was nearly automatic, and his impact on both ends of the floor was clear. He finished with 21 points, 11 rebounds, and a plus-nine in just under 26 minutes, more than enough to guide Toronto to a reluctant win over Washington.
If the Raptors want to lose these games, they will have to try harder.
Barnes did not look quite right in his 28 minutes, but even a below-average outing from him made a difference against a team as poor as Washington. Quickley returned from his night off with 21 points and seven assists in 26 minutes.
With a soft schedule the rest of the way, it will be difficult for the Raptors to rack up losses without making a real effort to limit their top contributors. They have dabbled in it, but if they are serious about moving up the lottery board, they will need to get just as uncomfortable as the rest of the tanking teams with their eyes on Cooper Flagg and the top prospects in this year’s draft.
Raptors' lottery positioning coming into focus after win in Washington - Toronto Sun
Both teams couldn’t hit anything in the second, combining to somehow miss 14-of-15 threes, and Toronto led by two despite shooting 32.7% from the field. The Wizards hosted a block party early, rejecting seven Toronto shots in the second quarter alone, but just two others the rest of the game.
The two-point lead for the visitors held through three, and at the 8:32 mark of the fourth, head coach Darko Rajakovic subbed out Poeltl, Barnes and Quickley. The other Raptors responded by pushing the lead to 10 though, with rookie Jamison Battle catching fire, scoring eight straight points in one stretch.
Toronto was coming off an ugly 123-89 home loss to the San Antonio Spurs Sunday. The team finished 3-1 this season against Washington. The Wizards have sat in last place in the overall standings since Nov. 22 when both they and the Raptors were 2-12. Toronto has gone 23-35 since though, compared to Washington’s 13-44.
Toronto went with its 33rd different starting lineup this season and rested RJ Barrett. Gradey Dick missed his 11th game in a row and Chris Boucher remained sidelined due to an illness. Ja’Kobe Walter did not play having just returned on Sunday.
Taking a look at notable outcomes by teams Toronto is jockeying with in the lottery race:
Wins by Chicago Saturday, the Spurs over the Raptors Sunday and Miami finally getting a victory made it extremely unlikely either of those teams get “caught” by the Raptors in the standings. Miami moved six wins up on Toronto, Chicago and San Antonio seven (before Monday’s games).
Toronto is now likely locked into the NBA’s seventh-worst record at worst, before May’s lottery. It would take a truly crazy finish (like the Raptors winning eight more times in the final weeks and Miami, Chicago or San Antonio only winning one or two more games) for that not to happen.
The difference between finishing seventh-worst and 10th (where the Spurs moved to after three wins in a row) is 31.9% odds at landing a Top 4 pick vs. 13.9% and a 7.5% shot at Cooper Flagg instead of 3% odds (ninth-worst gets 20.3% and 4.5% odds, respectively).
How Raptors’ Gradey Dick is coming out of his shell, one joke at a time - The Athletic
After his coaches and teammates are done making fun of him, they often talk about how impressed they are with his meticulous work ethic. You don’t become a shooter without attention to detail and a frustratingly high standard. He’s known to extend shooting sessions well past the scheduled finish time until he hits enough shots to check off every box.
Back when Dick was in middle school, Bart handed him a notebook and told him to chart every shot he took. He would track how he shot from each spot on the floor and would customize his practice plans based on game results.
Now, there are piles of them back at the house.
“It’s funny that it was him putting it in my hands and I didn’t want to at that age,” Dick says. “But now I see the importance of it, and I’m super grateful.”
His family comes up often in conversations with Dick. They were regular fixtures at his games and Sunday church before entering the league. Not having them in Toronto was part of why his rookie campaign was such a struggle. Despite being a lottery pick, he spent much of last season in the G League, only becoming a consistent starter with Toronto last March.
Carmen, a recent Iowa Girls High School Athletics Hall of Fame inductee who played professionally outside Tokyo for one season, helped him get acclimated to his new reality. When she ventured to Japan, there were no cell phones. She had to write letters to friends and family to not feel alone on the other side of the world. That perspective helped Gradey get comfortable being away from family and friends and lock in on fighting for a rotation spot with the Raptors.
To do that, he relied on Temple’s guidance.
The 14-year vet took on the role of Dick’s big brother. Temple wanted him to be a sponge but knew the team needed to embrace Dick’s goofiness to keep things fun during a losing season. Even as Temple would light into the rookie and be met with chuckles, he saw the messages were getting through. Temple told Dick he was a natural on offense, so focus on defense. They would go to chapel together before games. Bart told his son to start wearing suits to games so he could match his vet.
“I just told him to be aggressive, listen,” Temple says. “He’s a professional at the end of the day. It’s very hard to have guys that are so far on one end of the (silliness) spectrum on one side and then as professional as he is.”
With Temple taking on the role of big brother as Dick’s family back home gave him more space to find his way, Dick hit the ground running to begin his second NBA season.
Dick averaged 20.1 points in the first 12 games of this season, as his role increased when guards Quickley and Barnes missed extended time. He held onto his starting spot when Toronto got healthy but had to take a step back in the offense to make room for the team’s established playmakers.
“It doesn’t bother me at all, and I feel like that’s one of my strengths,” Dick says. “Just understanding that, ever since high school, knowing that basketball is about roles. When I got to Toronto, I understood that the way I get on the court and stay on the court is to know my role.”
While Dick’s 3-point shooting, his reputed strength coming out of college, dropped to just 35 percent before a hyperextended knee knocked him out of action in early March, his coaching staff and teammates are fine with it as long as he continues to develop as a playmaker, a rebounder and, most importantly, a defender.
Why the NBA’s tanking debate is about more than just losing games - The Athletic
On March 30, 2018, Marc Gasol came out cooking. The Memphis Grizzlies’ 7-foot center was matched up against that season’s eventual Defensive Player of the Year in the Utah Jazz’s Rudy Gobert, but that barely slowed him down. Gasol made 11 of 12 shots, including going 6-of-7 from 3, and scored 28 points in 23 minutes through the first three quarters.
And that was the end of the night.
Gasol was healthy but didn’t play the fourth quarter of that game. The Grizzlies ended up losing 107-97 to take Memphis’ record to 21-55. I was the Grizzlies’ vice president of basketball operations at the time, so I’m intimately familiar with what happened that night. There were good reasons for it, which we’ll get to in a minute, because I think it’s more complex than you might suspect. (While we’re here: Gasol wanted to play and wasn’t shy about telling us.)
Anyway, I’m reminded of this particular game every time I see the Toronto Raptors restrict the minutes of star forward Scottie Barnes this spring. He’s played fewer than 30 minutes six times in the last nine games, despite being fully healthy, and topped out at just 33. The Raptors have pulled other starters in multiple fourth quarters; in what is perhaps a related story, Toronto is in a tight race for NBA Draft positioning with the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers.
The Raptors aren’t the only example; Utah All-Star forward Lauri Markkanen played 28, 19, 26 and 24 minutes in the four games he’s played since Feb. 22. Only five of those 97 minutes came in fourth quarters. Toronto and Utah played each other in that stretch, and the fourth-quarter box score from that game on March 14 is its own bit, a sort of silent monument to quiet quitting. In a close game, the two All-Stars (Barnes and Markkanen) combined to play just 2:09 of the fourth, while Orlando Robinson and Johnny Juzang led their respective sides in minutes. The teams also pulled their best guards (Collin Sexton and Immanuel Quickley) after 2:09 of the fourth as well; game respects game, I guess.
It’s easy to point to cases such as these and blurt out “TANKING!” Certainly, incentives remain in the system for teams to reverse-engineer their place in the standings to maximize their draft pick. Those incentives undoubtedly strengthen in a year like 2018, which was one of the strongest drafts in recent memory, or in one like 2025, with a clear prized prospect at the top of the draft.
But there’s another factor that gets lost when people just point to tanking. Yes, despite the league’s recent efforts, incentives remain for teams to lose to maximize the value of their draft pick. But the other angle gets back to my Gasol story and the one with Barnes. You see, it’s not just that there is an incentive for losing. It’s also that there is no incentive for winning.
Here’s what I mean: Let’s suppose there was no draft at all. Tanking, then, would be irrelevant. How much would these teams’ behaviors have changed? Less than you think perhaps.
For instance, would the Grizzlies have had any more motivation to play Gasol in that meaningless game in Utah? At the time he was 33 years old, one year removed from a serious foot injury and still signed to a max contract with two years left to run. Why on earth would the Grizzlies put that asset at risk in a meaningless game?
Thus, he was on a 24-minute restriction that night; I forget every detail from the other contests that spring, but you can tell from his game log that other late-March games had similar restraints, and Gasol didn’t play a back-to-back after the All-Star break. Again, you can point to tanking — Memphis ended up tied for the league’s second-worst record and landed the fourth pick in the draft — but that leaves the other part of this question unanswered: How much would really have been different if there were no draft at all?
ESPN just released NET points, a new NBA metric. Here's how to DIY. - Jerry’s Newsletter
Not Raptors-related per sey (until someone runs the numbers for Raptor players), but an interesting new stat, from people who’ve never played the game, to add to the pile that we can ignore until it’s useful for making the case about some issue that comes up in the bar or barbershop.