Morning Coffee - Jan. 6, 2024

AND WE ARE BACK! HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Which Raptors team stats trends would change if they get healthy? - Raptors Republic
For almost as long as the Raptors had excelled in transition, they struggled in the halfcourt. Just think back to the days of Nick Nurse pushing ultra-aggressive defensive tactics to force turnovers and generally gaming the possession battle all in an attempt to circumvent this. For five straight seasons, the Raptors have been a bottom-10 team against a set defence.

This season is no different. Toronto scores 93.0 points per 100 plays in the halfcourt, good for 24th in the NBA. Not only does this trend align with the Raptors’ previous results, there is also some fairly sound reasoning as to why they struggle in this setting, making it seem quite real.

A lack of 3-point shooting and live-dribble creation standout as the primary explanations.

A lot of the Raptors’ shot diet actually corresponds with what modern analytics prescribes. They are second in rim frequency and 11th in corner 3-point frequency, the two most efficient shots in basketball. However, similar to their transition game, they often fail to cash in on these looks (27th and 13th in the league in percentage respectively).

Move outside of the small space in the corner and into the vast expanse of court above the break and the Raptors’ 3-point struggles come into focus. They are last in the league in non-corner 3-point frequency. As the corner 3 is an easier shot, it is also one defences work to take away, funnelling shooters above the break, resulting in far more 3s being available from the wing to the top of the floor. Toronto has also been devoid of pull-up shooting, where they are last in the league by a wide margin. In consequence, the Raptors are 28th in 3-point attempts per game (33.4). They don’t take many 3s and they also don’t make many, shooting 34.4 percent total and 33.3 from above the break (21st and 24th in the league respectively).

Shooting volume isn’t everything. The Denver Nuggets are proof, as they take the least 3-point attempts in the league and are sixth in halfcourt offence (although they are fourth in 3-point percentage, plus Nikola Jokic). Above-the-break shooting does, however, stretch the floor vertically, opening up more space for a motion offence like Toronto’s to work.

And the .5 offence is still intact. The Raptors are top five in assist percentage, passes made per game, potential assists, seconds per touch, and distance travelled. And this system has succeeded in getting them high-quality shots. But to go along with all the passing and motion, Toronto needs to shoot the 3-ball to be successful.

Toronto’s lack of live dribble creation is also an issue. Barrett has taken a huge leap this season creating advantages for teammates as a pick n’ roll ball handler, and while Barnes was passive for a stretch, his feel for the game and passing ability remains elite. Yet the Raptors still lack a truly dynamic lead guard.

This is where Quickley’s return can get interesting.

He will instantly be the Raptors’ best shooter on both pull-ups and from above the break, and this will have some degree of cascading effect on the rest of the offence. We may see Dick’s percentages get a bump when he cedes some of these high-degree of difficulty shots to Quickley and benefits from the extra space.

As far as creating with a live dribble, the Kentucky product has a spotty track record. In his few appearances with the team this season, Quickley often had difficulty creating and maintaining advantages, frequently picking up his dribble and disrupting the flow of the offence.

Quickley will help ameliorate some of the Raptors shooting and spacing woes, and he may even propel them out of the bottom-10 in 3-point frequency. As far as the creation goes, time will tell. In his New Year’s Day return against the Brooklyn Nets, the 25-year-old guard showed some promise maintaining a continuous live dribble and making reads. He showed flashes in this area last season too, but it’s only been one game since he came back from injury. There is still a long way to go before we can consider this part of his toolkit.

The Raptors will finally have their big three in the starting lineup - Toronto Star
What to expect? No one knows.

“I was actually kind of talking about it with Quick during practice, like just being able to drive and kick and find each other,” Barrett said. “I told him, ‘I haven’t played with you in a long time, buddy.’ Like we only played two games together this year (when Barnes was injured and unavailable).

“All of us together now, when you put it together, I think it’s going to be really good.”

Having all his top players for any extended period should also let coach Darko Rajakovic do what he wants to do. He won’t have to juggle starting lineups, he won’t have to ask players to take on roles that aren’t commensurate to their skills. He can coach what he wants to coach with a group he expected.

“I hope now that we’re going to be healthy enough over the next month —- two, three months — that we can really see and develop that group and see what we have,” Rajakovic said. “It establishes the second unit as well and what guys are going to be doing there and how they can play off each other.

“When you go into the summer and you’re making your playbook and what you can do, you build around what you think you have. Now is actually a good time for us to start implementing all those things.”

About the only silver lining has been the varied experience that Barrett gained while others were out and how it might help at key points in future games. Barnes was the primary point guard when he played and Quickley didn’t; Barrett moved into that spot when he played but Barnes and Quickley didn’t.

These are options Rajakovic found out due to circumstances.

“I think now I can help out in some areas, especially if Quick needs a break, Scottie needs a break, I can help out and fill those areas,” Barrett said.

Quickley return a sight for sore eyes, minds, bodies, and souls - Raptors in 7
Just as the 2023-24 season played out in segments with different iterations of the roster, we are seeing segments in terms of what we can learn. There was the ethical tank stretch of the season, followed by the unethical tank, and now we have the opportunity to learn the most important thing about this team: What Quickley, Dick, Barrett, Barnes, and Poeltl all look like together.

Barrett remained out against Brooklyn because of his illness, but even in watching four of the five together, we saw an instant improvement in the floor spacing and there were just four turnovers after a first quarter filled with miscues. Quickley finished with just a single turnover which is so impressive considering the rust factor having not played since Nov. 10.

Just as we saw Barnes’ return make life much easier for Barrett, Quickley’s return against the Nets simplified the game for Barnes. Quickley didn’t look to force his own offence, instead looking happy to create for his teammates. He finished with 10 assists, while Barnes had 33 points on 14-of-18 shooting including 3-of-4 from three. He was relieved not to be handling the ball as much.

“It was definitely nice to play off the ball,” Barnes said after the game. “I can be a little bit more aggressive rather than think about playmaking the whole time. It was nice to be able to just do that and make other reads.”

I mentioned in my previous takeaways that the Kansas duo of Dick and Agbaji had really struggled and it was great to see how Quickley’s return helped them out, too. Just by virtue of having to be picked up above the arc and even near half-court at times, Quickley created space for his teammates that Davion Mitchell and Jamal Shead simply don’t have the gravity to do.

Dick attempted eight threes, the first time he shot at least six threes in a game since Dec. 19. He finished with 22 points on 17 shots and will be breathing a sigh of relief that his shot quality will significantly improve moving forward. Agbaji had 14 points on 5-of-8 shooting while also playing excellent defence on Cam Johnson.

Raptors mailbag: Fans are seeing red as the losses keep piling up - Toronto Star
Not sure I can rank ‘em 1-through-10 (there’d be an awful lot of ties in the middle ranks) but how about the top and bottom?

To some extent everyone does the bidding of the bosses: Jay Triano, for instance, had Peja Stojakovic on his team but could not play him because the front office was moving him on and didn’t want to risk anything. A shooter of that skill would have helped but he couldn’t. Dwane Casey took some early losses because he had nothing but kids but he did what he needed to instil the kind of “culture” the organization wanted.

Brendan Malone got fired after one season because he went directly against the express desires of his boss, searching wins and also wearing down Damon Stoudamire, so he’s the other end of the spectrum.

Darko? He is doing precisely what Masai and Bobby Webster want, finding out which young players can play, working behind the scenes to expand skills knowing they may not manifest themselves for a season, or maybe never, and patiently waiting for an extended length of good health to see what this team is.

Trust me, his bosses are entirely fine with what he’s doing given the circumstance of the last season and a half.

A rank: Malone was at one level, Casey was at the highest, the others tried their best to carry out their duties and Darko is very, very, very much at the Casey end of the spectrum.

Raptors need to find creative ways to unleash Gradey Dick's offence - Toronto Sun
Two days later, the Raptors were an entirely different team that lacked no physical edge playing a completely undermanned Magic side that humiliated the home side.

This season was viewed from a development lens when losses would be tolerated provided the Raptors were competitive and were able to show signs of improvement.

When Dick was rolling, judging him properly was foolish.

Now that Dick has hit a bump in the road, making any conclusions would also be foolish.

Among all the team’s young players, Dick provides the biggest upside, which is not to lose sight of rookie Ja’Kobe Walter.

In an era of NBA basketball dominated by three-point shooting, Dick needs more touches and needs to be placed in positions where his skills can be unlocked.

Perhaps Monday’s visit by the Bucks will provide Dick with some pleasant memories of the first time he faced Milwaukee.

Whether Toronto’s projected starting unit finally gets to be on the floor for the first time this season beginning Monday (Barrett is listed as questionable because of flu) or during the coming road trip, the team can’t forget about Dick.

One player to watch on all 30 teams - ESPN
Trade candidate: Chris Boucher, Forward

Boucher, and not Bruce Brown Jr., is on the list for several reasons. His length and ability to guard multiple positions is of value to playoff teams. Boucher is also having one of his more efficient seasons, averaging 9.9 points in 17.5 minutes.

More importantly, Boucher's $11.7 million salary this season is half of what is owed to Brown, who had offseason knee surgery and has played only three games.

NBA 2024-25 bold predictions: Revisiting our preseason prognostications - The Athletic
Prediction: Raptors will finish bottom four in the East

Outlook: Chicago Bulls? Competent! Detroit Pistons? Feisty! Brooklyn Nets? So competitive they already started trading their good players. Meanwhile, the Raptors have been beset by injuries, including significant ones to Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley. The Raptors have had some nice individual stories (RJ Barrett’s growth as a playmaker, Ochai Agbaji’s 3-and-D potential), but they are comfortably in the bottom three right now. Their easiest stretch is at the end of the season, so there might be some light sabotaging necessary to clinch this one.

How Herbie Kuhn became the voice of the Raptors for 30 years: ‘Nobody deserves it more than him’ - Toronto Star
“There were numerous people who didn’t think that a local kid with minimal experience was going to get that opportunity,” Kuhn says. “But they were wrong, and the Lord had different plans.”

His first contract was for one year, and he was paid per game. Although it wasn’t enough to make a living, he enjoyed every second.

During his early years with the Raptors, Kuhn struggled with his volume. He shouted so loud he damaged his vocal cords and missed a few games. He also missed time in 2006 because he and his wife, Stephanie, adopted a son from South Africa. Otherwise, he has rarely been absent.

Kuhn’s most exciting announcing moments come from playoff victories, including many from the 2019 championship run or when he voiced the shot clock after it malfunctioned in a playoff game. But his favourite memories will always be the relationships.

“To me, it’s the sweetest part of being able to do what I do,” he says.

He keeps in touch with several former Raptors, including Dell Curry, Anthony Parker and Norman Powell. Curry, who played for the Raptors from 1999 to 2002, always looks forward to seeing Kuhn whenever he’s in Toronto.

“He’s so upbeat and always has a smile on his face,” Curry says. “I enjoy what little time I can spend with him.”

His relationship with Dell Curry extends to his son, four-time NBA champion and Golden State Warriors superstar Stephen Curry. Each time the Warriors come into Toronto, they share a warm embrace.