Morning Coffee - Feb. 4, 2025
T-minus two days until the trade deadline
Scottie Barnes’ and Toronto’s seasons have been an enormous gamble - Raptors Republic
First let’s get the easy stuff out of the way: The defence is flat-out working.
Toronto had the number-one defence in the league for two weeks straight — and by an enormous margin, with the gap between Toronto and second-place larger than the gap between second-place and 12th-place. Barnes has been the alpha and omega on that end, eating the sun and belching the moon. His event creation (read: steals and blocks) have been up to the level they were to start the 2023-24 season, and he’s been defending in isolation, helping in gaps to steer drives, protecting the rim, and cleaning the glass. (He’s actually eating glass like few other non-centers in the league — he’s fourth among non-centers in defensive rebounds per game over the last few weeks). Plus his deny defence on some matchups has taken players like Paolo Banchero or Kyle Kuzma out of games for long stretches at a time. It’s been marvelous. The team is only up to, well, 25th on the season. But Barnes’ individual on/offs defensively are in the 96th percentile; his individual defensive impact is near the top of the league. But we already knew he was great defensively. His offensive role has seen the major change so far this season.
Perhaps most significantly, the wing stuff is starting to hit. Exhibit One: Barnes, starting to win awards like Eastern Conference Player of the Week. Not everything is perfect — he’s not 2020 Paul George or 2024 Giannis Antetokounmpo or anything like that. Perhaps most relevant, right off the bat, for not being perfect: Barnes’ 3-point accuracy is down to 26.9 percent on the season. That craters his overall efficiency. But outside of that, his improvement virtually everywhere is real and meaningful.
Barnes’ inside-the-arc scoring has started to click. Darko Rajakovic has repeatedly insisted ever since joining the organization that Barnes has to be a scorer first before the rest of his superpowers can impact the game the way they are meant to. And we’ve started to see the concept of that manifest on the court.
Barnes’ role is increasingly required to create his own offence — 56.4 percent of his 2-pointers are unassisted, which is the 10th-highest rate in the league among wings and forwards to have appeared in 30 or more games and averaged 20 or more minutes. Of the nine players above him, seven were All Stars this year or last, and the others were DeMar DeRozan and Deni Avdija. In other words, Barnes has been asked to create for himself like few others at his size.
Some parts have gone… fine. Better than they used to be, at least. As an isolation scorer, Barnes is up to shooting 42.9 percent from the field on the season. That’s nothing to write home about, but in the past he’s been well below league average in isolation situations. His turnovers remain sky-high in such static situations, but he’s doing more to actually create for himself from a standstill. Turnovers come with the game of ‘trying stuff.’ And he’s making more shots than before.
Isolation is far from the determinant of his offence, but it’s a canary in the coal mine indicating improvement as a scorer, as well as the type of looks upon which he is relying when asked to create for himself.
The real meat of his improvement shows up with more punch in other areas. Over the years, the quality of his driving and post games has been steadily improving. He is far from the league leader in either area, but he has been creeping up that leaderboard. Among players to have appeared in 30 or more games this season, he’s up to 36th in drives per game (and 11th among forwards) and 16th in post-ups per game (and eighth among forwards). He’s starting to have go-to actions.
What To Know About Raptors Ahead Of Trade Deadline - Raptors in 7
Who’s In Play For Butler?
The most likely path for Brown to be involved in a trade is as an ancillary piece in a Jimmy Butler trade. If you are team tank, you are pro Butler getting dealt before the deadline because Brown has been a very positive contributor since returning from injury.
We know that Butler wants Phoenix and that he has already told both the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies he has no interest in re-signing with those teams in the summer. The Houston Rockets do not appear to be interested in Butler and the Dallas Mavericks appear to be out of the running after acquiring Anthony Davis.
What could prevent Brown from being involved in a Butler deal? A preference for an alternative expiring salary such as Malcolm Brogdon’s $22.5M with Washington or Bojan Bogdanovic’s $19M with Brooklyn. Many iterations of possible deals will have been drawn up by the Miami Heat by now and it’s a question of finding the machination that can get it over the line. At least four-plus teams are expected to be involved if a deal gets over the line.
It’s plausible any of Boucher, Olynyk, or Mitchell end up being involved in the deal as well.
Also, with Golden State reportedly ruled out as a destination for Butler, you can put those Andrew Wiggins to the Raptors rumours to bed.
Nuggets, Knicks, Clippers Lead Interest in Boucher
Denver missed out on Zach LaVine but ever since Russell Westbrook’s inclusion in the starting lineup, the organization seems more intent on adding around the edges.
A player like Boucher would look great on the Nuggets and can provide exactly the kind of pop off the bench Denver is lacking at the minute. I have loved every minute of Boucher in Toronto this season, bouncing back from a tough 2023-24 season in such a professional, disciplined, and determined manner. Get him to a team in win-now mode.
I am a bit skeptical of Boucher’s fit on the Knicks because he doesn’t address much of their needs. That team needs frontcourt defence and has no issues scoring the basketball. The Clippers just traded P.J. Tucker and now have Drew Eubanks as their backup centre. There’s no other salary to make the deal work.
As mentioned before, I would love for Oklahoma City to nab him.
NBA trade deadline rewind: Breaking down 2024’s moves, one year later - The Athletic
Dec. 30: Knicks grab OG Anunoby from Toronto
Knicks acquire: OG Anunoby, Malachi Flynn, Precious Achiuwa
Raptors acquire: Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, 2024-second round pick
What we thought at the time: The Knicks got the trade season moving by taking a calculated risk. They wanted to upgrade the wing position but didn’t want to give up picks to do it. With Donte DiVincenzo, they had backcourt depth to offer up Quickley and Barrett. As long as Anunoby re-signed in the offseason, it was a great deal adding big talent to the Knicks.
As for the Raptors, they were retooling/rebuilding anyway, so grabbing a couple of talented young players was a great start, especially since Anunoby was likely leaving in the summer.
What it looks like a year later: It was a great start to the Knicks retooling their starting lineup around Jalen Brunson. They’d eventually trade for Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns in the offseason, which paved the way for us enjoying one of the best offenses in the NBA. They’re also starting to really play some defense. Anunoby re-signed with the Knicks, as they expected him to.
In the Raptors’ case, they were going to make one more significant trade before the deadline (you’ll see below), and Barrett has been pretty good. Quickley has been injured a lot this season, but they signed him to a five-year, $175 million extension in the summer.
Did this really help either team? The Knicks have become one of the best teams in the league, so this trade absolutely helped. The Raptors are still in the rebuilding process around Scottie Barnes, but Quickley and Barrett help in the long run.
Trade Deadline FOMO score (scale of 1-10): 1 for Knicks; 1 for Raptors
Jan. 17: Three-team deal lands Pascal Siakam in Indiana
Pacers acquire: Pascal Siakam
Raptors acquire: Bruce Brown Jr., Kira Lewis Jr., Jordan Nwora, 2024 first-round pick, 2024 first-round pick, 2026 first-round pick (top-four protected)
Pelicans acquire: Cash
What we thought at the time: OK, the Raptors are really starting over around Barnes. After moving Anunoby to the Knicks, they decided to get Siakam elsewhere and not worry about him leaving in the summer.
This was a big move for the Pacers, who had been playing really well but needed a second guy next to Tyrese Haliburton. Siakam should give them a better chance on defense and even more reliable offense.
The Raptors were mostly getting first-round picks and whatever Brown could net them in a trade when they flip him. The Pelicans? Everybody loves cash.
What it looks like a year later: This trade really worked out for the Pacers! Siakam had some good moments for them the rest of the season, and he helped Indiana get to its first conference finals since 2014. The Pacers re-signed him to a new deal, so he and Haliburton are running mates for a while.
The Raptors haven’t really done much with their trade components. We’ll see if Brown gets flipped to a title contender or a postseason hopeful before Thursday’s trade deadline.
They drafted Ja’Kobe Walter with the 19th pick, but he hasn’t had a great rookie campaign. He shows some promise, but shot making has been an issue. They moved the other 2024 first-round pick in a trade we’ll get to in a few moves.
Did this really help either team? The Pacers truly benefited from this deal already and could add even more success. The Raptors have a long way to go before we know if this helped them. I have no idea what New Orleans spent that cash on — hopefully something fun.
Trade Deadline FOMO score (scale of 1-10): 1 for Pacers; 2 for Raptors; 10 for Pelicans
How does blockbuster NBA weekend impact Raptors' trade chips at deadline? - Sportsnet
Is Jakob Poeltl destined for showtime?
The Austrian big man is clearly of value to the Raptors — leading Toronto in games played, rebounds, blocks and is fifth in scoring — so it's not likely he's moved. But as Sportsnet's Michael Grange reported, no one outside of Barnes or sophomore Gradey Dick is "untouchable." That word also now means a whole lot less after the weekend.
While the Raptors seem uneager to part with Poeltl — reports indicating a steep price tag of "more than a first-round pick" — the landscape has shifted such that Toronto needs to keep an open mind.
And remember when I mentioned the ripple effect from those blockbuster deals? This could be one of them. The Lakers' desperation for a centre has been magnified tenfold following Davis' departure (Ironically, he was the one urging L.A. to add a big so he could return to playing power forward. AD got what he asked for ... sort of). While Davis enjoys suiting up next to Dereck Lively II in Dallas, and the Lakers look forward to deploying Doncic and James together — both less-than-defenders at this point — they'll need serious rim protection.
The Lakers are set up for the future, sure, but by no means is this year a wash. They're 28-19, fifth in the West and just acquired a five-time All-NBA first team-er. The time to build around their Slovenian superstar is now, and adding a safety valve on both ends, like Poeltl, would be a great place to start. And by not giving away their 2031 pick — along with keeping their 2026, '28 and '31 firsts — in acquiring Doncic, there are resources to keep upgrading.
And that stench of desperation is exactly what Ujiri tries to get a whiff of before he comes calling.
Once upon a time, the Orlando Magic got two firsts from the Bulls in a deal centred around then-30-year-old Nikola Vucevic (who's seemingly back on the market now). While Poeltl isn't quite the 20-point scorer that the two-time All-Star is, he's a markedly better defender, a smidge cheaper and five years younger. Could that be a point of reference for the Raptors' front office?
If the price is right — say that '31 first and maybe even a budding player like Dalton Knecht — I wouldn't put it past Ujiri to wave goodbye to Poeltl for a second time, no matter how much of a security blanket he acts as for Toronto's youngsters.
Or could Ujiri try his luck with Dallas? The Mavericks have no choice but to try and win a title in the next couple of seasons to justify shipping away Doncic. And that includes this year, despite being ninth in the West at 26-24. But with Lively out for another extended period due to injury, the frontcourt doesn't look as sturdy, while concerns over his health are seemingly growing. At 20 years old, his upside is evident, but the Mavericks have no time to wait for it to be realized, especially if he keeps missing games in between. The Raptors, on the other hand, can be plenty patient. Swapping the two could give Toronto its centre of the future while affording Dallas a starting big man for its current title chase.
Other possible landing spots: Golden State Warriors, Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks, Atlanta Hawks and New Orleans Pelicans
The Raptors’ coach says he doesn’t look at the NBA standings. He might be surprised by where they sit - Toronto Star
Toronto also has the NBA’s easiest schedule for the rest of the season, according to tankathon.com. That makes it even harder to improve their odds in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes.
None of that matters to Rajakovic and his team — or so they’re saying. Building winning habits is the top priority.
“That’s what I’m trying to get our guys to understand. We’re in a such privileged position to be in the NBA, to play in the best league in the world. We’ve got to take it one game at a time, to be extremely motivated, extremely competitive in every single game,” the coach said.
“We don’t control anything (about) what’s going to happen two weeks from now, so why should I bother about that? All we have is today. I need to bring my best energy, best preparation and pour it into our guys.”
There hasn’t been any indication that Toronto will be a major player with the trade deadline looming, but things can change overnight.
The Raptors as constructed are focused on improving their style of play and getting better as a unit, then letting the chips fall where they may.
“(We’re going to) play our butts off every single time we are on the court,” said RJ Barrett, who led the team with 20 points, six rebounds and seven assists in Sunday’s win over the L.A. Clippers.
Having been traded last year, Barrett said he “feels good” not to have his name mentioned in rumours and is happy to be a key contributor to the Raptors. The importance of having the roster healthy can’t be understated.
“I’ve been saying it all year, that once we start to get our guys back healthy that we’re going to be able to play well and ratchet up some wins, and that’s just what we’re doing,” he said. “We’re playing hard, we’re playing together and it’s going well for us right now.”
Centre Jakob Poeltl echoed that, noting their recent success is what he and his teammates have envisioned since the season started.
“Lately we’ve been really good defensively (and) I think it’s honestly up to us as individuals to step it up,” he said. “When we have five guys out there who are aggressive on offence and still play on the string (defensively) and we’re connected in that sense, that’s when we are really dangerous.”
Why Raptors probably will be involved before Thursday's NBA trade deadline - Toronto Sun
WHY MIGHT RAPTORS DO SOMETHING?
It’s pretty simple. The list of teams that are under the luxury tax, have players on expiring contracts of various sizes they would be willing to move and aren’t in win-now mode is a short one.
Toronto is roughly $10 million US under the tax (unless another Doncic falls into their lap, there is no chance they make moves to go over this year, they want to collect payments from tax-paying teams, not pay millions to other franchises and waste a year being in the tax, etc.).
Brown’s $23-million deal is large, but could help make a big-name, multi-team trade work (hello Jimmy Butler). Boucher, who said “nobody is safe,” when asked by a couple of reporters Sunday what the Doncic deal means, is on a $10.81-million expiring contract, while Olynyk has admirers around the league, but teams might be hesitant to trade for him since he has another $13.44-million guaranteed contract for next season thanks to the extension he inked with the Raptors. There’s also Davion Mitchell, who is younger than the other three mentioned and has been a nice defensive upgrade off the bench. Mitchell is making $6.45 million and can become a restricted free agent, meaning the team who has him on the roster can match any outside offers, if he’s given a qualifying offer by the Raptors (or a team that trades for him) this summer.
WHAT ELSE MAKES A DEAL LIKELY?
The team also has its mid-level exception (up to $12.8 million), which can be used as a trade exception to take on salary (for example, if another team wants to get under the luxury tax or one of the new tax aprons the NBA now has and is willing to give out first or second round draft picks or a young player to do so, Toronto could be interested). Toronto can absorb multiple players with the exception, but can’t bundle the exception with a roster player going out. Also, Toronto won’t take on a full $12.8 million since it only has that roughly $10 million in luxury tax room.
Keep in mind that there are more teams than usual in a similar position to the Raptors, so they won’t have a ton of leverage. Washington, Utah and Detroit come to mind as teams that also can take on salary in exchange for goodies.
WHO MIGHT THEY PARTNER WITH?
Miami needs and wants to unload Butler. New Orleans hasn’t been able to find a pathway to a new contract with Brandon Ingram, who has averaged 23 points a game over the last six seasons, and also is less than $2.5 million over the luxury tax. That franchise has never paid the tax and will be angling to get under with or without an Ingram deal. Toronto has been connected to Ingram, but sources say it has been merely the standard practice of taking a call, rather than actively pursuing. For the right price though, anyone as talented as Ingram could make sense for Toronto.
Cleveland is also close to ducking the tax, despite being a contender. Teams such as Golden State, Denver and Philadelphia likely will attempt to lower their bill even if getting fully under the tax is unlikely.
There’s also the highest-spending teams (Phoenix, Minnesota, Boston, Milwaukee, New York, maybe the Lakers, and Nuggets), who will be in touch with teams willing to absorb some of their contracts to help them get their cap situations more in order (and to help lower the punitive new punishments for overspending under the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement).