Morning Coffee - Dec. 18, 2024
Bet the Raptors to cover the spread | Hardest schedule to start the season | Knicks lawsuit still pending
V Thoughts: Agbaji's leap, Mogbo's leaps, Dick's coming of age - Raptors in 7
We have been teased throughout the season, watching the Raptors compete with nearly every team but finding different ways to lose close games. All told, the Raptors are now 7-20 with a 6-8 record at home and 1-12 on the road.
What would it look like if the projected starting five of Immanuel Quickley-Gradey Dick-RJ Barrett-Scottie Barnes-Jakob Poeltl had played 200-plus minutes instead of the zero to this point? You’d like to think that’s worth at least five wins. Instead of the wins, we’ve seen accelerated growth for Agbaji, Dick, and even Barrett’s playmaking. Opportunities for Mogbo and Walter have been significant, too. It’s fair to wonder how much any of that matters if what I believe to be the true core of Barnes, Quickley, and Dick have only played eight minutes together.
I do think it’s fair to say that the individual progression different players have shown suggests this team is actually further along than expected and could actually be a .500 team with a normal degree of health. That’s a credit to Darko Rajakovic and the coaching staff as development is the biggest metric they’re being measured on. Frankly, that makes the prospect of adding a top five draft pick to this roster all the more tantalizing.
Some might remember my season preview where I predicted the Raptors to be around 7-18 at the 25-game mark and around 15-35 at the 50-game mark:
Barnes may be back sooner than expected but with Poeltl possibly out for a little bit and Quickley still without a timetable, being 20 games under .500 a couple months from now seems very much in play. I think it would be suboptimal to pursue a Play-In spot if that were to be the case, but let’s see how things play out.
Raptors trade tiers: It’s Bruce Brown’s time to shine at NBA deadline - The Athletic
It would have to be a blockbuster
RJ Barrett (three years, $82.1 million remaining, UFA in 2027)
Immanuel Quickley (five years, $162.5 million remaining, UFA in 2029)
Clearly, it would be a major surprise if either Barrett or Quickley were traded. I have Barrett as more likely to be traded because a) he is having a good year, making him more valuable; b) he has a shorter contract; and c) there are still questions about the Barnes-Barrett fit. (The results have been mostly positive this year, although the sample is small.) Given that he has played three games, Quickley is likely untradable now. Assuming he gets back to full health and stays that way, I think his contract will be fine.
If a championship contender pushes its chips in
Jakob Poeltl (three years, $58.5 million, including player option for 2026-27, UFA in 2027)
Poeltl is good. Too good? We’ve been over that. The Raptors have no need to trade him if they don’t get offered something useful for him, as they can always suggest he take the spring off if they need to lose some games late in the season. He suffered a groin injury on Monday against Chicago, and is expected to miss some time.
Will a needy team emerge? As ever, it’s easy to point out the teams who could benefit from having Poeltl — almost every contender, but especially the Knicks (if Mitchell Robinson can’t get healthy), Suns, Lakers and Grizzlies. Finding a team willing and able to pay the price? Less likely.
Young players who probably aren’t going anywhere
Jamal Shead (three years, $6.1 million remaining, including team option for 2026-27, restricted free agent in 2027)
Jonathan Mogbo (three years, $6.1 million remaining, including team option for 2026-27, RFA in 2027)
Ja’Kobe Walter (four years, $16.8 million remaining, including team options for 2026-27 and 2028, RFA in 2028)
Ochai Agbaji (two years, $10.7 million remaining, RFA in 2026)
Gradey Dick (three years, $16.9 million remaining, including team option for 2026-27; RFA in 2027)
I struggled with the rankings within this group, because higher salaries are often necessary to make trades happen. You don’t see many minimum-for-minimum trades. On the other hand, Dick, Agbaji and Walter all feel like keepers for the Raptors, and they would hold on to them tightly, even in multi-player trade scenarios.
It probably doesn’t matter. I’d expect all five of these guys to be on the roster next year.
Raptors’ new two-way player has a deep connection to the city — and to one of his teammates - Toronto Star
The high turnover of personnel in the G League is indeed something that Lawson has gotten used to since his pro career started. He went undrafted in the 2021 class — two years after his buddy Barrett got picked third overall by the New York Knicks.
In a span of three years in the G League, Lawson has played for College Park Skyhawks (Atlanta), the Iowa Wolves (Minnesota), Texas Legends (Dallas), Long Island Nets (Brooklyn) and now the Raptors 905 in Toronto. In between, he had a stint with the Guelph Nighthawks of the Canadian Elite Basketball League.
Lawson’s G League career-high of 37 points happened last month while playing with the Nets, beating the Raptors 905 in Mississauga.
The pace and athletic energy that he plays with, along with his defensive mindset, are just some of the aspects the team will want to exploit.
“He’s very, very excited. Obviously this is a dream coming true for him to be playing for the Raptors,” head coach Darko Rajakovic said. “We’re excited to learn more about him, his game, and to help him out on his path.”
It’s already a big feat for the Toronto native to be playing professionally, but there’s no doubt in his mind that playing for his hometown team is going to feel even more special.
Last week, a former classmate posted a memory from when Lawson couldn’t choose the Raptors as a topic for a high school project because she picked the team first. Although he didn’t remember that incident, he reposted the memory on his timeline to share in the fun.
“Absolutely it’s a great feeling to have people that know me in the city and might come out to support me,” said Lawson, noting it was emotional driving to OVO Athletic Centre for his first shootaround with the Raptors.
“It’s added motivation knowing there are people in the stands cheering for you. Whenever I’m home I feel like I have great games.”
NBA Sets Hearing Date for Knicks-Raptors Battle Over 'Stolen' Files - Sports Illustrated
The NBA has officially set a hearing date for late July 2025 in the ongoing legal dispute between the New York Knicks and the Toronto Raptors, according to Stefan Bondy of the New York Post. The announcement comes 13 months after a court ordered the NBA to arbitrate the case, a timeline that has only heightened the Knicks' frustration with the league’s handling of the matter.
The issue at the center of the Knicks’ case revolves around allegations that former Knicks employee Ike Azotam stole over 3,000 confidential files before joining the Raptors. The Knicks claim these files included scouting reports, play frequency data, and a 2022-2023 season prep book. According to the Knicks, Azotam secretly forwarded this proprietary information from his Knicks email to a personal Gmail account, later sharing it with the Raptors’ staff. The lawsuit, filed on August 21, 2023, escalated tensions between the two franchises and named several key Raptors figures as defendants, including head coach Darko Rajaković and player development coach Noah Lewis.
While the NBA’s decision to schedule a hearing represents a step forward, the Knicks are frustrated with the pace of the process. In a statement to the New York Post, an MSG Sports spokesperson criticized the league for delaying a judgment.
“We remain skeptical because the NBA has consistently demonstrated no desire to address this matter, most likely due to the fact that the Chairman of the NBA is the defendant,” a spokeperson told Bondy.
A key point of contention for the Knicks is NBA Commissioner Adam Silver’s ability to fairly preside over the arbitration. The Knicks have repeatedly raised concerns about Silver’s relationship with Larry Tanenbaum, chairman of the Raptors’ parent company, Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment (MLSE). Tanenbaum also serves as chairman of the NBA’s Board of Governors, a role that has prompted the Knicks to question whether Silver can impartially oversee the dispute.
Crunching numbers adds up to Toronto Raptors team that is simply bad - Toronto Sun
For those inclined to wager a sum on the Raptors, Toronto has turned in as sure a betting proposition as there could be in the fickle world that is gambling. It’s too bad that covering point spreads isn’t part of the NBA standings.
If it was, the Raptors would be among the league leaders in posting an 18-8-1 mark. Heck, only the Cleveland Cavaliers have been better at covering the spread.
Of course, the Cavs are a very good team that has twice beaten the Raptors and have gone 1-1 against the reigning champion Boston Celtics.
The way the Raptors continue to battle back from deficits and how their fate is ultimately sealed in a close game pretty much sums up the state of this franchise — at times good, but far more often they are far from good, even when players are playing well.
This good-but-not-good-enough trend only goes so far before it becomes annoying.
Given the state of the roster with the team’s best two players sidelined and the team’s best interior player and lone rim protector sidelined, expect more of the same.
Redundancy is one thing until it gets old that is. Eventually, a breakthrough must be achieved and a sustained level of play over an extended stretch must be reached.
NBA Power Rankings: Thunder are rolling as trade winds sweep across the league - The Athletic
This week: 25
Last week: 25
In the last week: L at MIA, L vs. CHI
Offensive rating: 110.7 (22nd)
Defensive rating: 115.3 (22nd)
Trade Winds: SG Bruce Brown
Brown hasn’t played all season after knee surgery that he has yet to come back from. Everyone will remember 2023 for how Brown contributed to the NBA champion Nuggets. Brown got his money and has struggled ever since. Toronto will hope a team can see Brown as a missing piece that can defend, be a secondary ballhandler and make enough shots to keep defenses honest.
Ex-Raptor Jontay Porter to be sentenced on criminal charges on Wednesday - Toronto Sun
Porter’s sentencing hearing is scheduled for Wednesday at a federal courthouse in Brooklyn, N.Y. He pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit wire fraud on July 10 after admitting to competitive manipulation in two NBA games.
Peter Czegledy, a partner at Aird and Berlis who chairs the Toronto law firm’s gaming group, said that although Porter has apparently co-operated with U.S. authorities, he expects the former NBA player will still be severely punished.
“This is a high-profile case, involving premeditated and repeat misconduct over a period of time by a public individual who should be acting as a role model, so that will not be in his favour,” said Czegledy, who does not practise law in the U.S. “A gambling addiction appears to have been cited as a mitigating factor by the defence, which seemingly would assist Mr. Porter.
“I would expect that the court will be very careful in its deliberations — and that the sentence will combine both a prison term and significant financial restitution.”
Czegledy noted that the 25-year-old Porter’s gambling addiction would have limited value to his defence if he was tried in Canada. A 1996 Court of Appeal decision explicitly decided that an accused’s addiction or obsession with gambling should not be considered a mitigating factor warranting a lesser sentence.